This is the advice of Santam agricultural weather expert Johan van den Berg, who warns that the multi-year cycle of below average rainfall has left soil moisture severely depleted.

Farmers across the central parts of South Africa reported rainfall varying between 5mm and 15mm over the past weekend. Van den Berg says the scattered showers are fairly normal for this time of year, saying traditionally rain in the central region only sets in properly from around mid-October.

He advises farmers to approach the new season conservatively as it remains high risk due to low soil moisture and uncertainty over the a strong El Niño system.

“Rainfall forecasts are only forecasts and very unreliable – so one of the only things that the farmers has some control over is what is happening with his soil.

“Therefore it is very important to farm with water and not with crops. It is very important to manage the infiltration of water into the soil, to control weeds, to conserve water – especially in this type of year where there is a pending El Niño.”
*Johan van den Berg

Van den Berg says experts are in consensus that the El Niño is a strong to fairly strong one, with ocean temperatures about 2.2 degrees Celsius warmer than normal. He adds, however, this is no guarantee of below average rainfall, adding that there is no correlation between the strength of an El Niño and the effect on rainfall.

He says each individual farmer will have to assess and manage risk appropriately, saying past experience has shown that not planting at all can have worse consequences than a scaled down planting.

Sabrina Dean/OFM News