This is according to Agri SA’s senior economist Thabi Nkosi, who says the estimate is probably on the conservative side:

“What we estimate is that in the current season, maize farmers in total would have had to forgo revenue of about R12-billion, as a result of drought losses, and this amounts to about R2-billion in the sugar industry. This excludes livestock farmers where the losses have not been quantified as yet. 

“So we’re looking at in excess of R15-billion just in this year alone and I think that’s really veering on the conservative side.”

* Thabi Nkosi – revenue losses

Commenting on the prospects for the next season, Nkosi says things are looking bleak:

“Experts estimate that these dry conditions are likely to prevail until the middle of next year and of course if you’re talking about rains coming in June we have already missed the planting season, especially for maize.

“So it is quite concerning and at the moment farmers are quite cautious because there really is no moisture in the ground.”

* Thabi Nkosi – dry conditions

She says experts have drawn up several different scenarios to try and project the harvest outlook for the next production season. She says in the very worst case scenario, South Africa could look at a maize crop of only 3,9-million tons, as opposed to a normal crop of 12-million tons.

Sabrina Dean/OFM News