Agriculture
Rainfall outlook still below normal, says SAWS─── SABRINA DEAN 16:05 Tue, 01 Dec 2015
Bloemfontein - The SA Weather Service is still predicting below average summer rainfall, with a likelihood of extremely below normal rainfall totals for the midsummer period.
This is according to the latest Seasonal Climate Watch report, which provides an overview of expectations for December 2015 to April 2016.
SA Weather Service research scientist Asmeron Beraki says the current El Niño system is the strongest it has been in years:
“We don’t really see any conditions that will reverse the adverse conditions of El Niño. As we have indicated already this is one of the strongest El Niño’s that has happened for several years, about 50 years, or even more.”
* Asmeron Beraki
He says one cannot rule out rain entirely but adds that any rain we do receive is unlikely to reverse the very dry conditions.
Commenting on media reports that there might be some respite based on what’s happening with the Indian Ocean Dipole or IOD, Beraki says conditions are not favouring South Africa. He says Indian Ocean temperatures are warming in general resulting in a neutral state between the equatorial and subtropical parts of the IOD.
He explains that the generalised warming means there is no temperature contrast and this results in a neutral state. He says ocean temperature disparities, such as when the ocean is warmer in the western part and cooler in the eastern part of the ocean, then result in a positive IOD. He says this in turn creates conditions more favourable for rain in South Africa.
The weather service meanwhile says it looks as if the El Niño episode will continue through summer and start to decay during late autumn to early winter.
Sabrina Dean/OFM News
SA Weather Service research scientist Asmeron Beraki says the current El Niño system is the strongest it has been in years:
“We don’t really see any conditions that will reverse the adverse conditions of El Niño. As we have indicated already this is one of the strongest El Niño’s that has happened for several years, about 50 years, or even more.”
* Asmeron Beraki
He says one cannot rule out rain entirely but adds that any rain we do receive is unlikely to reverse the very dry conditions.
Commenting on media reports that there might be some respite based on what’s happening with the Indian Ocean Dipole or IOD, Beraki says conditions are not favouring South Africa. He says Indian Ocean temperatures are warming in general resulting in a neutral state between the equatorial and subtropical parts of the IOD.
He explains that the generalised warming means there is no temperature contrast and this results in a neutral state. He says ocean temperature disparities, such as when the ocean is warmer in the western part and cooler in the eastern part of the ocean, then result in a positive IOD. He says this in turn creates conditions more favourable for rain in South Africa.
The weather service meanwhile says it looks as if the El Niño episode will continue through summer and start to decay during late autumn to early winter.
Sabrina Dean/OFM News
* Asmeron Beraki:
