The report highlights movements in maize/corn, wheat, soybean, sunflower seed, beef carcass and potatoes. It also provides an overview of economic indicators and weather expectations.

Key points:
 
Maize
•    The International Grains Council (IGC) have kept their 2015/16 South Africa’s maize production estimate unchanged at 7 million tons. This is slightly below the National Crop Estimate Committee’s estimate of 7.16 million tons.
•    More interestingly, the IGC forecasts an 84% recovery in South Africa’s maize production in the 2016/17 production year, with overall harvest at 12.9 million tons.
•    Chicago maize markets were closed this morning for Independence Day.
 
Wheat
•    South African winter wheat crops are currently in good conditions across the Western Cape Province, owing to beneficial rainfall and fairly cold weather conditions in the past few days.
•    The 2016 total wheat plantings are forecast at 481 850 hectares, down by 0.06% from the previous year. That said, we will look to the National Crop Estimate Committee for guidance on this season’s production forecast.
 
Soybean
•    The domestic soybean prices have been trading closer to the import parity prices (Randfontein), with the imported soybean prices slightly above the domestic prices.
•    So far, South Africa’s 2016/17 soybean imports stand at 65 065 tons, down by 75% from the seasonal import forecast (265 00 tons).
•    Chicago soybean markets were closed this morning for Independence Day.
•    The IGC, in their monthly report, kept the 2016/17 global soybean production forecast unchanged from previous month’s one, at 320 million tons.
 
Sunflower seed
•    In the next few days, we could see an increase in sunflower seed deliveries as the harvesting process continues.
•    This year the harvesting process has been slightly prolonged/delayed relative to the previous seasons because some crops were planted late, around mid-to-late January 2016
•    Black Sea region – Ukraine’s sunflower seed crop is reportedly in good condition, with yields expected to be relatively higher than the last season.
 
Weather
•    We are starting the week with a fairly positive precipitation outlook for the winter crops growing areas of the Western Cape province.
•    The next eight days forecast shows possibilities of rainfall across the southern parts of the Western Cape province of South Africa. The forecast showers could vary between 5 and 20 millimetres (figure 1).
•    Meanwhile, the rest of the country could remain dry, which is supportive of summer crops harvest process.  
•    A number of weather forecasters are currently seeing a development of a La-Niña weather phenomenon towards late spring through to the summer season of 2016/17 (see Figure 3)
 
The full report can be downloaded here:

20160704 Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities.pdf

Source: Agbiz