Here is Sihlobo…

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He says South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) is expected to release its first estimate of the country’s 2019/20 summer crop harvest on Wednesday and market expectations are largely positive. This is due to mainly the area planted for major summer crops such as maize, soybeans and sunflower seeds which is up 10% on a year-to-year (y/y) basis, 4% y/y and 7% y/y, for these crops respectively.

Another contributing factor is although summer rains were delayed which subsequently led to a share of plantings occurring outside the optimal window in some regions of the country, weather conditions have improved notably since the beginning of January this year. As a result, the crop is in good shape in most regions of the country with anticipation of higher yields.

Sihlobo says on January 27 this year Agbiz tentatively placed its forecast for South Africa’s 2019/20 maize harvest at 12.50 million tonnes, but have now lifted it to 13.72 million tonnes, which is 22% higher than the 2018/19 season’s harvest. This is underpinned by an upward revision of yield estimate to 5.40 tonnes per hectare, from our earlier assumption of 5.00 tonnes per hectare, in an area of 2.54 million hectares.

He adds if this harvest materialises, South Africa would remain a net exporter of maize in the 2020/21 marketing year which starts in May 2020, and comes at a time where Southern African maize import needs could outpace the previous year, with Zimbabwe in need of maize supplies to an extent that the country lifted a ban on importation of genetically modified maize, which eases access for South African maize exporters.

It is also estimated that South Africa’s soybeans and sunflower seed 2019/20 season harvest could lift by 26% and 12% from the previous season, to 1.48 million tonnes and 761 070 tonnes respectively. Sihlobo says this too is underpinned by an expansion in area plantings and anticipation of higher yields. South Africa’s soybean yield estimate is 1.95 tonnes per hectare, with sunflower seed yield estimate at 1.38 tonnes per hectare. All these are within the historic range of seasons of good rainfall.

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PRESENTER OUTRO: That was Wandile Sihlobo, Chief Economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, Agbiz.