NWU Economics Professor, Waldo Krugell, tells the OFM Business Hour, that the index stood at 59,6 in the third quarter of 2022 following persistent load shedding in the country. But has appeared to have eased in the fourth quarter albeit still being in negative territory. 

According to Krugell anything above 50 is deemed negative from a policy uncertainty perspective. He says policy uncertainty dampens investment - hence the existence of the index. The index according to the NWU Economics Professor is made up of four components namely: media monitoring; findings from the Bureau of Economic Research (BER); and the NWU’s own survey of economists. 

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Whilst the BER’s manufacturing findings in November 2022 revealed that the general sentiment amongst respondents was that politics have a negative influence on businesses in that sector. Economists surveyed after the ANC’s elective conference in December 2022 by NWU were a lot more positive adding that “the president has a mandate now and can accelerate reforms”. 

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With respect to 2023, the NWU Professor says the big question is when will inflation slow down, followed by the lowering of interest rates. He says some experts predict this could happen from March 2023 onwards, others anticipate that inflation will remain sticky and interest rates will remain the same. 

It remains to be seen which fate will befall South Africa. 

OFM