Wandile Sihlobo, Chief Economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz) says the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war on grains and oilseeds markets, along with the ban on exports of wheat and palm oil by India and Indonesia, respectively, added to the anxiety in the markets. 

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Sihlobo emphasises that within the African continent, which is typically a net importer of roughly US$80 billion of food and agricultural products a year, the challenge is severe.

He says in the East Africa region, the conflict in regions of Ethiopia, for instance, had already displaced farmers and resulted in food insecurity worries.  The drought in the region, leading to potentially poor harvest in Kenya, among other countries, was an additional pre-existing challenge which will now be exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine war disruption on grains and oilseeds, along with fertiliser and fuel prices.

Meanwhile, food shortages in Africa could lead to high instability, including riots or toppling governments, warns African Development Bank President, Akinwumi Adesina. He further adds that an African emergency food production plan has been developed.

However, according to Sihlobo, here in South Africa, the picture is slightly different from most African countries, at least from the food availability perspective.

He says Agbiz does not foresee a shortage of food supplies. The major impact of the disruptions in global agricultural markets will mainly be through price transmissions. South Africa is generally a net exporter of food and agricultural products and has had sizable harvests in the past few years, with an expected good crop in the 2021/22 season.

The primary major food staples the country imports are wheat, rice, palm oil and poultry products. From discussions with major importers of these products, we believe that the country has secured sufficient supplies to last for some time.

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