He also provides more information about the latest developments in the agricultural sector. 

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In this week’s insert, Sihlobo takes a look at favourable agricultural seasons that South Africa had experienced.

“South Africa has not had three consecutive favourable agricultural seasons in a long time. The typical cycles are two seasons of large agricultural output followed by a notable decline on the back of dryness.

“The only periods in the recent past that had three successive years of conducive weather conditions and a large crop harvest were in the 2007/08, 2008/09, and 2009/10 production seasons. In this period, commercial maize production was over 12 million tonnes each year, averaging 12,5 million tonnes per year.

“A sharp decline in the maize area, specifically in the 2005/06 production season, characterised the seasons prior. This was primarily caused by dryness and resulted in a lower harvest of 6,6 million tonnes in 2005/06 and 7,1 million tonnes in the 2006/07 production season.

“Other key summer crops such as sunflower seed and soybeans registered similar dips in production, especially in the 2006/07 season,” says Sihlobo.

However, he says that the upcoming 2021/22 season is likely to be an additional period of a prolonged cycle of favourable weather conditions and good agricultural activity in South Africa.

“The 2019/20 and 2020/21 production seasons were characterised by ample rainfall, which supported agricultural activity in the country and led to large harvests. For maize, which we have already highlighted, this was the first time in history where South Africa's maize yields have surpassed 15 million tonnes in two succeeding seasons; at 15,3 million tonnes in 2019/20 and 16,4 million tonnes in the 2020/21 season.

“Other subsectors of agriculture, mainly horticulture, also recorded large production volumes in essential fruits such as citrus. The deciduous fruits and wine grapes also showed an improvement in output from the previous years' decline.

“As we approach the summer crop planting season from October, the weather forecasts show strong prospects of above-normal rainfall in the 2021/22 summer season. At the end of July 2021, the South African Weather Service indicated that South Africa could experience another La Niña this summer, albeit weaker than in 2020/21,” states Sihlobo.

He adds that an important point to highlight here is that this would build on relatively higher soil moisture across the country following the 2020/21 season's La Niña rains.

“On 12 August, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society echoed a similar sentiment as the South African Weather Service, expecting a weak La Niña for the coming season.

“Importantly, from September 2021 to January 2022, the La Niña probabilities are over 50%. These expectations suggest that the summer crop growing areas of South Africa could likely receive above-normal rainfall during this period,” concludes Sihlobo.

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