He also provides more information about the latest developments in the agricultural sector. 

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In this week’s insert, Sihlobo takes a look at Kenya’s maize imports and the contribution that South Africa is likely to make.

“Kenya is one of the few African countries that will remain significant maize importers in the 2021/22 marketing year. Several countries such as Malawi, Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, and Ethiopia expect a large domestic harvest, which should reduce the import needs compared to the previous season and place some at the net exporting position.

“A report released by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) last week indicates that Kenya's 2020/21 maize production would likely increase marginally from the previous season to 4,0 million tonnes (this production year corresponds with 2021/22 marketing year).  

“Such a harvest falls short of Kenya's annual maize consumption of 4,5 million tonnes. Hence, imports are set to increase by 25% y/y to about 500 000 tonnes. This will primarily be white maize, which exporting countries such as South Africa will have in abundance for the 2021/22 marketing year,” says Sihlobo.

He adds that South Africa will, however, not play a meaningful role in Kenya's maize market despite the expected white maize exports of 1,2 million tonnes in 2021/22.

“This is part of the expected total maize exports of 2,8 million tonnes, with 1,6 million tonnes being yellow maize. Kenya still prohibits the importation and growing of genetically modified maize. This is a significant hindrance for South Africa as roughly 80% of maize grown in the country is genetically modified.

“South Africa's maize export market will remain the domestic, neighbouring countries and the Far East market – the likes of Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, amongst others. However, the neighbouring countries' maize imports demand will likely soften notably in the likes of Zimbabwe because of large domestic harvests.

“For Kenya, the countries that will likely supply maize in the 2021/22 marketing year are from the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa and the East African Community because these groups produce non-genetically modified maize. Importantly, Zambia and Tanzania will likely dominate Kenya's maize import list, as has been the case over the past decade,” concludes Sihlobo.

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