"We are seeing a rapid rise in the cumulative number of positive Covid-19 cases indicating that, as we had expected, we are approaching a surge during the latter winter months of July and August," he said.

It was anticipated that while every province would witness an increase in their numbers, areas with high economic activity would experience an exponential rise, beginning with Gauteng and the Western Cape and followed by the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal.

"We believe that within the coming days, Gauteng will emerge with the highest Covid-19 numbers. Factors contributing to this trend are inward migration; the large population (especially in metros like Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni, and Tshwane); increased congregating which spurs cluster outbreaks; and the level to which people are able to adapt to new behaviours such as social distancing and the wearing of masks.

"We have identified the need to increase Covid-19 hospital beds in this province and we will be supporting the province to ensure that they are capacitated to meet the rising demands," he said.

In addition to regular hand washing, physical distancing, and the correct wearing of masks at all times, early case detection, contact tracing, quarantine, and isolation were the key armaments in the toolbox to break the cycle of infection. The province was being engaged to strengthen their contact tracing and quarantine/isolation uptake.

"We are working on a programme with social scientists and a new multi-sectoral ministerial advisory committee on social behavioural change to attain fundamental reform at grassroots levels for the sake of saving lives. It will be important to engage community, religious and traditional leaders who can motivate individuals to adhere to non-pharmaceutical interventions," he said. 

Having compared the real numbers with those depicted in predictive models, it was noticed that the Western Cape had not quite reached the surge as expected by modellers. The consortium had accordingly reviewed their models, taking into account what had been observed in actual terms.

Regarding the Eastern Cape, he said a team of epidemiologists from the national department of health had initially been deployed to intervene on an emergency basis to focus on the bottleneck in personal protective equipment (PPE) procurement and the immediate outbreak response.

"We are now reinforcing this support by deploying experienced senior managers to deal with the overall health systems management in the province and assist with the ground response. Once again, it will be important to carry out strong tracking and tracing systems and optimise quarantine and isolation uptakes."

"Overall, case management is very good and I would like to congratulate all officials and health care workers for tirelessly soldiering on under the most trying circumstances. We will be clearing all testing backlogs and reducing the turnaround time to less than 72 hours so that the management of persons under investigation and contacts can be expedited.

The hospitalisation rate was increasing with the Western Cape still having the highest numbers of admissions. As at June 27, the majority of hospitalised patients were admitted in the province at 36 percent (1629), Gauteng at 26 percent (1164), and Eastern Cape at 17 percent (775).

Nationally, the highest proportion of patients were in general wards (isolation wards) at 80.1 percent, 11.3 were in intensive care, and of those, 58.6 percent were on ventilation. Fifteen percent of all hospitalised patients were on oxygen.

"As such, we recognise that we have not reached our full bed capacity and this is an area receiving urgent attention together with the provincial departments. Successful public and private partnerships are paramount so we are very pleased that negotiations with the private sector are now concluded and private facilities are ready to accept public patients.

"We have engaged industries to secure what we need to meet our increasing oxygen requirements and we are very gratified by the cooperation and willingness of industries to divert oxygen to hospital facilities. The procurement and acquisition of ventilators is on course – we feel confident we will be able to meet demand.

"We have revised the dexamethasone protocols to ensure early administration to the most critically ill patients. A further study of hospitalisation data gives us insight into the natural history of the disease – this is key as we craft the national Covid-19 response," he said.

Data published by the National Institute of Communicable Diseases confirmed that the elderly and those with co-morbidities –  such as hypertension, diabetes, cardiac disease, chronic kidney disease, malignancy, HIV and obesity – were the most vulnerable.

Citizens living with these conditions should not neglect their appointments and medication for fear of going to a facility and contracting Covid-19. All facilities had a triaging mechanism in place to separate those with flu-like symptoms. It was vital that everyone living with co-morbidities ensure good control of their chronic conditions. Although mortality was rising in absolute numbers, the rate remained stable between 1.8 and 2.1 percent.

"As government, we have mobilised every resource, every faculty and wherewithal at our disposal to effect the necessary interventions. But government cannot manage this unilaterally. Every single South African now needs to focus on adhering to recommendations pertaining to non-pharmaceutical interventions.

"We are extremely concerned that fatigue seems to have set in and South Africans are letting down their guard at a time when the spread of infection is surging. We see poor or no social distancing in communities. Masks are being abandoned or not worn properly, and there is laxity setting in around frequent hand washing," he said.

This would directly influence the rise in numbers in the next two weeks. "We must all appreciate that there is a direct causal link between the surge of cases and our ability, or inability, to adhere to these very basic principles.We do not have a vaccine. We do not have a cure. Our ability to break the cycle of infection depends on our willingness to remain focused and disciplined and take non-pharmaceutical interventions seriously. 

"We can beat this pandemic together – we already proved this during the lockdown. It remains in each and every citizen's hands to admonish family members, colleagues, or friends who refuse to adhere to measures that protect lives by limiting the spread of this virus," Mkhize said. 

African News Agency