When epidemiologists first modelled their forecasts earlier this year there were fears that people, especially those in densely populated spaces, were at a greater risk of rapid infection. But the numbers continue to tell a different story.

Professor of Vaccinology at Wits University, Shabir Madhi, said that some sectors of the population could have developed immune cells, which offered a layer of protection against viral infections, including COVID-19.

In such instances, the body remembers past encounters with pathogens like the coronavirus and is better armed to fight them.

While research is ongoing, early studies were published, including in the online peer-reviewed journal called Nature in Singapore to support how these so-called memory T-cells work.

Madhi – who’s also the director of SAMRC’s Vaccines and Infectious Diseases Analytics (VIDA) Research Unit and is South Africa’s lead researcher on the COVID-19 vaccine trial – said that people in high-density areas could have generated this immunity because of previous widespread exposure to common cold coronaviruses.

“They have been exposed, they developed this key cell immunity which helps them to fight the severe effects of COVID-19,” he said.

Madhi believes that between 40 and 45% of the population had already contracted the virus.

“If there is a second wave we will probably see another 15 to 20% infected, then you are reaching the threshold required for herd immunity. We will then see seasonal outbreaks during autumn and winter,” he said.

For a country whose earlier rapid rise of infections sparked fears of a health system collapse, South Africa’s COVID-19 mortality remained far lower at just over 1%.

According to Full View, Mkhize said he was positive about the slowing rate of coronavirus infections.

“We can safely say that we’re over the surge. June, July and August were the worst of our months, as predicted by our models. However, we found that it was not as many people as the model had suggested would be infected.”

Mkhize thanked citizens for taking heed of government’s precautionary measures.

In the past week, South Africa dropped further in ranking and it is now eighth in the world when it comes to the number of COVID-19 cases.

However, people should remain cautious to avoid a possible second wave of infections that some countries like Spain, Iran, Korea, and the US are experiencing.

“In January, when we didn’t have COVID-19, five people came from China wearing masks in a flight that landed in Cape Town. There was panic in the entire country and today, everyone is wearing a mask and if you’re not wearing a mask, you look abnormal and that is the nature of evolution.” Mhize said wearing masks had made a huge contribution in the fight against the deadly virus and contributed towards the country escaping the flu season.

“Social distancing, handwashing, sanitisers, and masks are all our new normal, and we must get used to that before we get the vaccine.”

The second wave remains the risk citizens must keep in mind, he warned.

EWN