Speaking to OFM News, North-West University political analyst André Duvenhage said the outcome of the upcoming local government elections could have far-reaching implications, potentially affecting even the Government of National Unity (GNU). He expects the ANC’s performance in the province to mirror its declining support in the 2024 national and provincial elections, particularly in urban centres.

“That lower performance we are going to see in bigger towns and cities. I’m referring to JB Marks, Matlosana, Rustenburg, as well as the Brits area. In rural areas, I expect the ANC to remain a dominant force. But when it comes to other areas like JB Marks, Matlosana, Madibeng, Brits, as well as Rustenburg, I am expecting coalitions.” 

He identified JB Marks, Matlosana, Madibeng, and Rustenburg as municipalities where the ANC could face increased competition, with coalition arrangements likely to become necessary.

Opposition parties could take control of JB Marks municipality, which includes Potchefstroom and surrounding areas. Photo: OFM

“There is an opportunity that in JB Marks, Tlokwe, Potchefstroom, we may see an opposition configuration, with the DA that can come and take over the leadership in this environment. It’s going to be a watershed election. The impact of this won’t only be felt in local government. I believe it can impact even the government of national unity.“

Duvenhage said projected party support points to an increasingly fragmented political landscape, with the ANC polling in the lower 30s, the DA at around 25%, MK Party at approximately 15% and the EFF at 9%.

The IFP is estimated to have 4% support, while ActionSA and the Patriotic Alliance are projected to receive between 2% and 3%. The FF Plus is estimated at approximately 1.4%. These figures suggest that coalition governments will become an even more prominent feature of local government politics.

“We saw coalition governments emerge in around 70% of hung councils following the 2021 elections. I believe that figure could increase by at least 100%, meaning we could see a significant rise in hung councils and the need for coalition arrangements.”

The growing number of hung councils and coalition arrangements could destabilise several municipalities, potentially making effective governance increasingly difficult.

He also shared his expectations for other major metropolitan areas. He predicted a strong showing for the DA in Tshwane, while saying the ANC and other political parties would remain dominant contenders in Ekurhuleni. In Mangaung, he expects a closely contested race between the ANC and DA, while the MK Party is expected to remain a dominant political force in eThekwini.

OFM News/Kekeletso Mosebetsi  cvs

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