Reacting to President Donald Trump’s announcement that all South African goods imported to the USA will be subject to a 30% levy, Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber (Agbiz), told BizNews that various sectors will have to go back to the drawing board.

Sihlobo said South Africa must pay close attention to what the US is asking for and work on improving its offer. “We cannot just substitute the US – it remains super important to us in agriculture.” He further noted that this sentiment is echoed by players in the mining, automotive, and other industries.

Some have questioned why South Africa doesn’t simply pivot to alternative markets like China. But Sihlobo dismissed this as unrealistic.

“You can’t switch markets overnight. There are supply chain dynamics, relationship infrastructure and logistics that have been built over the years. In China, South African exporters still face steep tariffs – up to 20% on wine, 12% on macadamias – and we don’t have a trade agreement in place.”

Instead, the agricultural sector is focused on export diversification, not as a replacement for US access, but to expand capacity for the expected growth in production.

New markets essential

“If you speak to anyone in the fruit industry, they’ll tell you South Africa’s fruit output will grow by over 30% in the next five years, based on trees already planted. We already export half of what we produce, so new markets will be essential.”

He also pointed to government plans involving over two million hectares of land yet to be planted. “Once that land is productive, the surplus will again need export destinations.”

Sihlobo reiterated while accounting for around 4% of agricultural exports, the US remains crucial to specific high-value subsectors. “We must mend relations while continuing to open new markets. Diversification should build on, not replace, what we already have.”

OFM Agri cg