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Notices / Reports

Agbiz morning market viewpoint on agri commodities – 5 July 2016

───   09:41 Tue, 05 Jul 2016

Agbiz morning market viewpoint on agri commodities – 5 July 2016 | News Article

Agbiz economists, Wandile Sihlobo and Tinashe Kapuya, compile a report every weekday outlining domestic and global trends in agricultural markets.


The report highlights movements in maize/corn, wheat, soybean, sunflower seed, beef carcass and potatoes. It also provides an overview of economic indicators and weather expectations.

The latest version of the report can be downloaded here:

20160705 Agbiz Morning Market Viewpoint on Agri-Commodities.pdf


Key points in today’s morning note:

Maize

  • Yesterday the stronger Rand/US Dollar movement led to significant losses in the domestic maize market. 
  • At midday SAGIS will release the South African weekly grain trade data. 
  • The Chicago maize markets were still closed for Independence Day. Nonetheless, last week’s acreage report, which indicated that US maize plantings were above market expectations, at 94.1 million acres, added some bearish sentiment to the global maize market. 
  • United States - weather conditions have been favourable in the past few weeks across the US Midwest, which is supportive of maize crop growing conditions. 
  • This evening, the USDA will release their weekly crop progress report, which will give more insights on the maize crop growing conditions.

 

Wheat

  • South African wheat prices also lost some grounds in yesterday’s trade session, owing to the stronger Rand, and bearish sentiment in the global wheat market, with the latter following the release of the International Grain Council monthly report.
  • South African winter wheat crops are currently in good conditions across the Western Cape Province, owing to beneficial rainfall and fairly cold weather conditions in the past few days. 
  • At midday, SAGIS will release the South African weekly grain trade data. Last week, wheat imports came in at 47 529 tons, all from Russia.

 

Soybean

  • Yesterday the stronger Rand added bearish pressure to the domestic soybean market. Moreover, the Chicago soybean market was closed for the Independence Day holiday. That said, there was still some bearish sentiment which originated from last week’s acreage report.
  • Chicago soybean markets were still closed this morning for Independence Day.
  • United States - in the past few weeks, the fears of La-Niña were somehow muted, with short-term weather forecasts showing possibilities of rainfall across the US Midwest, which is favourable for the crop.

 

Sunflower seed

  • Yesterday the stronger Rand weighed on domestic agricultural commodities, with sunflower seed prices closing at fairly lower levels than the previous day. Moreover, there is also a bearish sentiment in the domestic sunflower seed industry which emanates from expected higher production.
  • The harvesting process is still ongoing in some areas of South Africa. In fact, this year’s harvesting process has been slightly delayed relative to the previous seasons because some crops were planted late, around mid-to-late January 2016.

 

Weather

  • This morning the precipitation forecast remain fairly unchanged from yesterday’s one. The next eight days forecast shows possibilities of rainfall across the south-western parts of the Western Cape province.
  • The forecast showers could vary between 2.5 and 16 millimetres (figure 1). 
  • Meanwhile, the rest of the country might remain dry, which is supportive of summer crops harvest process. 
  • The long-term precipitation forecast shows possibilities of light showers throughout the country, with the exception of Limpopo province (figure 2).


Source: Agbiz

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