The ANC has postponed former president Jacob Zuma’s disciplinary hearing until after the elections on 29 May. 

The decision to prosecute Jacob Zuma appears to him like “closing the stable door after the horse has bolted”, said political analyst André Duvenhage. “The moment Zuma established the MK party and mobilised support for the party without resigning from the ANC, was the time the ANC had to act.

“It is clear that the ANC leadership, especially Cyril Ramaphosa, is afraid of Jacob Zuma in terms of support within the ANC, said Duvenhage.” 

‘Counteractive for the ANC’

“They decided, typical of the ANC over the last five years, to let the matter go, and what is happening now is that the matter is turning out to be very counterproductive for the ANC.”

Polls show the ANC’s support base has now fallen to even less than 40%, while the MK party’s support is placed between 8% and 12%. “It is even estimated that the MK party could become the third largest party (after) the ANC and the DA, and this at the expense of the ANC but also the expense of the EFF. 

“In that sense, the ANC has now decided to act at a late stage with only weeks before the election. In my opinion, this is a very poor decision with huge security risks because it is clear that the MK party is going to mobilise.

‘The ANC probably has the most to lose’

“The ANC must act to save face, and this means an escalation of the conflict shortly before the election. I am of the opinion that the ANC probably has the most to lose in this regard,” he said.

He said the summary of this is that the ANC has calculated that they have more to lose here than to win, and he thinks this is a correct assumption.

“This once again confirms the influence of Jacob Zuma in contemporary politics, and it also shows the crisis within the ANC. This is in the larger context of political change, and I remain of the opinion that the 2024 election will be the most important and difficult election since 1994.”

OFM News cvdw/mvh