Here is Sihlobo…

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He says fears about the potential disruptions that the novel coronavirus (Covid-19) could cause on global supply chains have raised some questions about South Africa and the possibility that the country can experience food shortages in the near-to-medium term.

Sihlobo adds from a national perspective, there is doubt that this would be the case, at least for most food products. South Africa is an agriculturally endowed country, generally a net exporter of agricultural and food products. 

There are, nonetheless, essential imported food products that South Africa is dependent on, such as rice, wheat, and palm oil. Key palm oil suppliers are Indonesia and Malaysia. The typical suppliers of rice are Asia and the Far East, namely Thailand, India, Pakistan, China, and Vietnam, some of which are hard hit by the pandemic.

In the case of wheat, the suppliers are usually Germany, Russia, Lithuania, USA and the Czech Republic, some of which are also hard hit by the pandemic. Some of the countries which have reported cases of COVID-19 have not taken drastic measures of limiting business activity, apart from Italy and China, to reduce the spread of the virus.

This boils down to the importation of these agriculture products into South Africa could continue unabated, barring any unforeseen eventuality.

According to Sihlobo, aside from the major products, South Africa also imports poultry products and sunflower oil; but these are products that can be replaced by local supplies, should there be disruptions in global supply chains. In the unlikely event of potential shortages, it will be due to glitches in the logistics of shipping imports rather than a decline in global essential grains supplies. For example, the 2019/20 global wheat production could amount to 764 million tonnes, up by 5% year-on-year (y/y, according to data from the United States Department of Agriculture.

Moreover, the estimated 2019/20 global rice production is 499 million tonnes, which is roughly unchanged from the previous season. The global palm oil market is also well supplied, with about 8 million tonnes.)

That was Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist, at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, Agbiz, only on Before Dawn.

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