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He is of the opinion that this promises to be a good year for the country from a grain production perspective. Data released by the national Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) shows South Africa’s 2019/20 summer grains and oilseeds production could increase by 32% on a year-on-year basis to 17.5 million tonnes. While this is only the third estimate for this season, and if it materialises, this could be the second-largest harvest on record following the 2016/17 summer crop season.

According to Sihlobo, major gains currently are maize, soybeans and sunflower seed and the forecast for the 2019/20 harvest of these grains stands at 15.2 million tonnes, 1.3 million tonnes, and 731 210 tonnes respectively. It is an increase from the  tonnes delivered during the previous season. The increase is mainly supported by an expansion in the area planted in the case of maize and expected improvements in yields on the back of favourable weather conditions during a greater part of the season. The harvest season for oilseeds has recently started, while for grains, it will likely gain momentum towards the end of May.

He says in the case of maize, the data essentially means that South Africa would remain a net exporter of at least 2.5 million tonnes in the 2020/21 marketing year which starts in May 2020 and ends in 2021. 

This comes at a time when southern and east African maize import needs could outpace those of the previous year.  Zimbabwe’s 2019/20 summer grains production season started on the back foot due to unfavourable weather conditions. The International Grains Council forecasts Zimbabwe’s 2019/20 maize production at 800 000 tonnes, which is less than half of what the country needs.

In East Africa, Kenya, Somalia and Uganda could experience crop losses as locusts continue to spread. These countries will require maize imports.

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