Wandile Sihlobo, Chief Economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, Agbiz, says in agriculture, there could be some resilience in the sector, compared to other sectors of the South African economy. This is, among others, because of the sector that was largely operational even during the strict level 5 Covid-19 lockdown, except for a few subsectors such as the wine, tobacco, wool and "floriculture" industries. Here is Sihlobo....

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He says these subsectors subsequently opened when the country’s lockdown moved to level 4 and 3, except for the tobacco industry, whose sales remains prohibited, while harvest and fieldwork are permitted. 

Secondly, South Africa expects its second largest grains harvest in the 2019/20 season, a harvest process that started recently. According to Sihlobo, there is an expectation of a record citrus harvest, general improvement in output in other fruits following drought years, and also a recovery in wine grapes output. 

He adds this boils down to a general increased activity in the farming sector compared to the previous year. With that said, the social distancing regulations introduced at the end of March 2020 to prevent the spread of the coronavirus could mean that farmers and agribusinesses might not increase employment, especially of seasonal labour, in the same way they would have in the absence of the pandemic. The impact of these dynamics, however, will only be reflected in the second quarter labour data, as well as the following quarters of the year. 

It is expected that first quarter employment data, which is due for release by Statistics South Africa, will reflect stable job levels that are roughly unchanged from the fourth quarter of 2019 employment of 885 000. There was vibrant activity in the sector until the coronavirus hit South Africa and the regulations to control it were instituted at the end of the first quarter. This means the disruptions in the sector from this pandemic should be minimal, if any, on an employment perspective in the first quarter. 

Sihlobo says the horticulture and field crops, which accounted for roughly a third of South Africa’s agriculture in the fourth quarter of 2019, are the ones that are set for a record harvest in some crops and general improvement in output in other crops and products. Hence, we are inclined to believe that the numbers due for release this week should show stable jobs in the agriculture sector.

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