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He says South Africa’s 2020/21 winter wheat production conditions have improved notably from the worrying outlook at the start of the season because of beneficial rain, specifically in the Western Cape, which is the country's largest producer of wheat. Sihlobo is, however, of the opinion that the country will remain dependent on global wheat supplies for half of its annual consumption. The indications on the global front are positive for the 2020/21 wheat harvest, although dryness could become a challenge for parts of Europe and America.  

This comes after South Africa’s 2020/21 winter wheat season had a bad start to it,  because of dryness. The Western Cape, which generally accounts for two-thirds of South Africa’s winter wheat plantings, experienced a roughly three-week delay. At the time, the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC), was convinced that plantings could fall by a 2% year-on-year (y/y) basis in the province. After accounting for unfavorable weather conditions in other provinces, the CEC estimated an 8% y/y decline in national winter wheat plantings for the season.

That dim view quickly changed after the first rain enabled farmers to accelerate plantings throughout the Western Cape and other provinces. Various interactions with farmers in the Western Cape suggested the area planted under wheat could be the same as in the previous season, and it might not have declined as the CEC predicted. There will be a clearer view on this point when the CEC releases its preliminary area estimate data for winter crops later this month on July 29.  

He says it is clear at the moment that sentiment about the 2020/21 winter wheat has improved notably since the start of the season. The recent rains in the Western Cape were particularly influential in improving soil moisture in the fields. If there are good follow up rains in the coming month, it is reasonable to assume that this could be one of the good seasons for winter wheat farmers in the province. There is certainly a case for such optimism if the latest reports from the South African Weather Service (SAWS) is taken into account. These forecasts show increased chances of above-normal rainfall over the south-western and southern parts of South Africa between July and October this year. The late start of the season means crops will require moisture for a longer period than usual, hence, the SAWS forecasts are a positive signal for these winter wheat-growing regions of the country, says Sihlobo.

That was Wandile Sihlobo, Chief Economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, Agbiz. To listen to inserts, go to http://www.ofm.co.za, click on News, Agriculture, and the Agri Hour. Tune into OFM weekdays at 11:00 and 13:30 for your latest agricultural news bulletins. 

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