Here is Sihlobo....

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He is of the opinion that South Africa could have yet another good season in 2020/21 following the current season in which a good summer grain crop is expected. Sihlobo says it has become increasingly challenging to forecast agricultural production seasons with some level of confidence. One of the factors that have contributed to this challenge is the more unpredictable weather conditions, especially over the last decade. 

He says South Africa has not only experienced a frequent occurrence of drought, but also a significant change in the frequency, patterns and intensity of rainfall. Regions such as Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal, that would typically receive first rains around October, have in the past few seasons experienced nearly a month's delay in rains. This has led to farmers adjusting their typical planting schedules for summer crops.

Even the 2019/20 season, which is set to yield the second-largest grains harvest in the history of South Africa, started with prolonged dryness which led to many doubtful prospects of a good harvest.  However, it did finally rain and this rain was sufficient and consistent to boost the fortunes of farmers. He says the preliminary indications for the 2020/21 season, at least for weather conditions, are showing some encouraging signs. This includes prospects that South Africa might not have a drier start of the season as in the 2019/20 season. 

This is based on the South African Weather Service (SAWS) which released its Seasonal Climate Watch. In this watch the likelihood of a La Niña phase during the coming summer months has drastically improved in the last few months, is predicted. Together with this prediction the Australian Bureau of Meteorology also indicated that “the chance of a La Niña event forming in the coming months has increased to around 50% - twice the normal likelihood.”  These early indications suggest South Africa might experience another good agriculture season in 2020/21 because of the expected higher rainfall. If this materialises, it will be beneficial to all sub-sectors of agriculture – field crops, livestock and horticulture.

Sihlobo adds for  the first time in many years, the available forecasts also suggest the summer crop season could start in its traditional period, which is the beginning of October, annually. There is a possibility that  weather conditions can change, but it will be monitored closely through  guidance from the weather forecasting institutions ahead of the planting period.

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