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The South African agricultural sector has thus far successfully harvested summer crops and horticulture with minimal interruptions from the pandemic. Farmers and agribusinesses had to, however, adjust their usual work processes to comply with health regulations and limit the spread of the virus. In about a month, the focus will shift to planting activity of 2020/21 summer grains, oil seeds and various horticulture products. This is at a time when the Covid-19 infection numbers are on the rise, with the Western Cape, Gauteng, Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal currently being the hot spots of the virus in South Africa. These provinces also account for 60% of South Africa’s agricultural output, which raises questions about whether the surge in infections could negatively impact the planting season.

He says at this stage there is, however, doubt that this will be the case. A large part of South Africa’s commercial agricultural sector is highly mechanised, which means the sector could operate with a limited number of people during planting. The periods that typically require increased labour are the harvest period, which for summer grains is currently at completion stage with minimal interruptions from the pandemic.

Nonetheless, the seasonal workforce which would have increased somewhat in a year of bumper grains, oil seeds and horticulture harvest as in 2020, might not have seen that opportunity this year given the need for social distancing. What we suspect happened on the farms is perhaps an increase in hours worked with a limited workforce. On August 11 this year Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) will release the Quarterly Labour Force Survey data for the second quarter of the year which should provide some clarity on the effects of the pandemic on employment in this sector. 

Other agricultural subsectors which could see a decline in employment because of cash flow constraints not caused by the virus, but the stringent regulations on domestic sales, are the wine and tobacco industry. This, however, will only appear in the official data in the third quarter of the year.

He says In a nutshell, the belief continues that  South Africa’s agricultural sector could have a strong start to the season, despite the rising number of infections because of the limited workforce that is required for grain planting activities, specifically in large commercial farming operations. Nevertheless, there is a risk in smallholder farming operations if the virus infections rise notably around October.

Apart from this, the 2020/21 season promises to be another good year from an agricultural output perspective and also input costs perspective for farmers. 

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