He also provides more information about the latest developments in the agricultural sector. 

Here is Sihlobo....

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He says reports of a potential La Niña occurrence during the coming summer months present different risks for Southern and East Africa’s agriculture. In parts of the East Africa region, the La Niña weather event typically correlates with below-average rainfall in December to February. Meanwhile, the opposite is true for Southern Africa. According to him, this is important for East Africa because this period is just before the start of the summer grains planting season, which is typically in February of each year. Therefore, a La Niña event would raise the risk of yet another poor agricultural harvest for countries in this region. Siholobo says conditions for Southern Africa could be different, however, with the occurrence of an expected La Niña event. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology recently increased the chances of this event to around 50%, which are roughly twice the normal likelihood and it could lead to increased moisture and potentially higher yields in the 2020/21 production season.  

Already in the 2019/20 production season, South Africa and Zambia had bumper harvests in major crops and various horticulture produce, says Sihlobo. These countries collectively have supplies to fill the shortfall of just over two million tonnes of maize in Southern and East African countries in the 2020/21 marketing year, primarily for Kenya and Zimbabwe. This means that the coming season, which could be dominated by a La Niña event, will continue from this already favourable path of large harvests in this region.

Aside from the climatic weather conditions, there are additional risks for East and Southern Africa’s agricultural sector. This includes the desert locust swarms which continue to persist in Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, and Sudan and it could stall the agricultural recovery if not successfully controlled.

The Covid-19 pandemic and associated regulations to curb its spread is still a major risk for agriculture in several countries, specifically among smallholder farmers and informal markets, which thrive on the movement of people. With the exception of South Africa, the official numbers of infections remain relatively low in some African countries. It is unclear if the infections will remain under control in the coming months or if there is yet to be a surge or peak, as we have witnessed in various countries.

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