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South Africa is expecting one of its best winter crop harvests. This is due to good rain in the Western Cape and favourable soil moisture.  He says the country could have one of its largest wheat harvests in a decade and also a record harvest of barley and canola. This makes it  a good season for South Africa from a production perspective.

Sihlobo says  South Africa could produce an estimated 505 215 tonnes of barley in the 2020/21 season, which is up by 46% from the previous season. This is a result of increased area plantings and also expected higher yields following good rainfall and South Africa could remain a net exporter of barley.

In terms of wheat, South Africa will have an uptick in the harvest but will remain a net importer while the country will remain a net exporter of barley, for the fifth consecutive season.  

The key export markets for South Africa’s barley over the past five years were within the African continent, primarily Uganda, Namibia, Zambia, Botswana, Lesotho and Togo, amongst others.

He says, however, the 2020/21 marketing season for barley has also been affected by the Covid-19 lockdown regulations which led to a temporary ban on alcohol sales for an extended period. These bans could lead to a lower intake of barley by the domestic beer industry. 

Sihlobo says the irony of a historically large barley output amid a predicted fall in demand from processors creates new market uncertainty and leave farmers with the question where are they going to sell their barley. That is why South Africa might have to explore export opportunities for its surplus beyond traditional markets.  It would be worth considering key barley-importing countries in the global market such as China, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the Netherlands, and Belgium.

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