The agreement, reached less than two hours before Trump’s ultimatum for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, has already sent ripples through global markets and political corridors. Trump had warned Iran it could face the wiping out of “a whole civilization” if it failed to comply.

The truce, announced in the early hours of Wednesday (7/4), followed Trump’s indication that the US would suspend attacks on condition that Iran fully restores access to the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a route responsible for roughly 20% of global oil flows.

Iran’s foreign ministry confirmed that safe passage through the waterway would be allowed for two weeks, in coordination with its armed forces.

North-West University political analyst André Duvenhage believes the development signals more than just a temporary pause in hostilities. “Undoubtedly, the announcement of a cease-fire for the next two weeks will have far-reaching implications for the international political arena as well as the international economic order.

“We’ve already seen the price of oil dropping below US$100 a barrel, so in that sense, the impact is already there. I do not doubt that there are strong forces at work. The Strait of Hormuz is not open at the moment, but I believe things will get better,” said Duvenhage, warning the next two weeks will be decisive.

‘The announcement of a cease-fire for the next two weeks will have far-reaching implications for … the international economic order’

The cease-fire underscores a shifting balance of global influence, Duvenhage believed, with China emerging as a key if not understated player. “What is interesting in the cease-fire is the critical role China is playing, and it seems as if it may be the guardian of Iran concerning upholding the cease-fire.

The US president has hinted at Beijing’s involvement, saying he believes China helped bring Iran to the negotiating table, according to AFP.

Meanwhile, global oil prices have dropped sharply, with benchmark Brent crude falling by about 13% to $94.80 per barrel, while US-traded oil declined by more than 15% to $95.75. Stock markets have also rallied in response to the easing tensions.

Despite the relief, prices remain elevated compared to pre-conflict levels of around $70 per barrel recorded before 28 February, reflecting lingering uncertainty in energy markets.

The disruption was triggered by escalating tensions in the Middle East, where Iran had threatened to target vessels in the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for US and Israeli airstrikes, raising fears over global energy security.

Duvenhage also pointed to South Africa’s diminished role in global diplomacy. SA is no longer a legitimate factor when it comes to negotiating cease-fires, he said, emphasising the country has lost power and influence while there are other role players better positioned and better placed to negotiate.

OFM News/Kekeletso Mosebetsi sm

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