The challenge of poor service delivery by municipalities and inadequately maintained roads are amongst some of the core issues in every discussion. This past weekend, the Agriculture Business Chamber – Agbiz - joined a discussion in the Free State organized by one of its members, the Sernick Group. These matters were yet again the key points of reflection, along with broad policy themes of land reform and water use regulations. According to Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist for Agbiz, they will continue to raise these issues to be prioritised by government through interactions with the Department of Agriculture, and other departments such as Department of Public Works and Infrastructure.

One encouraging data point this past week was farmers' intentions to plant winter crops in the 2022/23 production season. These plantings commence this month in the Western Cape and in the coming month in areas such as the Northern Cape, Free State, and Limpopo. Farmers intend to increase canola planting to a record area of 120 000 hectares (up 20% year-on-year). Additionally, area plantings for wheat could increase by 3% y/y to 538 350 hectares. Barley plantings could also recover by 15% y/y, to 109 100 hectares. Livestock is one sub-sector that, in the near term, is constrained by a range of challenges. These include foot-and-mouth disease and the trade restrictions that followed. These difficulties are in a year where feed prices are elevated (as seen in maize and soybean prices).

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Meanwhile, in its third estimate for the 2021/22 season, the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) lifted its maize and sunflower seed harvest estimates by 0,3% and 0,4%, respectively, from March figures to 14,72 million tonnes (down 10% y/y) and 963 000 tonnes (up 42% y/y). In the meantime, the soybean harvest estimate was unchanged at 1, 89 million tonnes (down 1% y/y). For maize, a harvest of 14, 72 million tonnes is decent, and well above the 10-year average of 12, 8 million tonnes and annual maize consumption of 11, 8 million tonnes. About 7, 55 million tonnes are white maize, and 7, 17 million are yellow maize. The yearly decline is mainly due to reduced area plantings and expected lower yields in some regions. Notably, South Africa will likely remain a net exporter of over two million tonnes of maize in the 2022/23 marketing year, which starts in May.

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