Sihlobo highlighted that around 80% of South Africa’s fertiliser and refined fuel, as well as 98% of its agrochemicals, are imported, leaving the sector highly exposed to global shipping costs, currency fluctuations, and international conflicts. 

“Machinery and other agricultural products are also largely sourced from abroad. This makes our farming sector highly sensitive to any disruptions in global trade or spikes in input costs.”

Sihlobo cited the ongoing Israel-Iran tensions as a key global risk currently under close watch. “Oil prices and the exchange rate are two of the main indicators we’re monitoring. These will become increasingly critical as we approach South Africa’s peak agricultural periods.”

The sector’s busiest stretch typically begins in October, when grain and oilseed farmers in the Free State and other provinces start planting, while winter crop harvesting begins in parts of the Southern Cape. Fuel demand and input usage rise sharply during this time, making global fuel price movements especially consequential.

Importance of global stability

“If Middle East tensions escalate or persist into the planting season, farmers may face significantly higher production costs.”

He emphasised that fuel accounts for roughly 13% of a grain farmer’s input costs, while fertiliser comprises about 30%. Both are heavily influenced by international markets and shipping routes, and thus vulnerable to global instability.

“These figures underline just how important global stability is to the sustainability of South African agriculture. We’re watching these developments closely.”

OFM Agri mvh