He predicts although South Africa’s agricultural trade balance could narrow this year because of the aforementioned animal health and unfavourable weather impact, it could remain in positive territory. This comes after the country’s surplus narrowed by 30% in the second quarter this year compared to the corresponding period in 2018. It was recorded then at US$789 million.  

According to him the narrowing of the trade balance was underpinned by lower export volumes of wool, edible fruits and grains.

This can be explained by two factors, which are animal health and the changing climate. The foot-and-mouth disease outbreak that occurred in Limpopo earlier this year resulted in a temporary ban of South Africa’s beef and other livestock products exports. Continuing for months authorities were still doing inspections and applying control measures, and thus, its impact is reflected in the trade data for the first half of this year. The beef industry is now back in export markets, but the wool industry continues to struggle to access the Chinese market as negotiations to resume exports are still underway.

Sihlobo says the drought, which started in October 2018 and this year continued in some parts of South Africa led to a poor summer crop and horticulture harvest. The major summer crops, which performed poorly during the 2018/19 production season – maize, soybeans and sunflower seed production - are down by 12%, 21% and 24% on a year-to-year basis to 11.02 million tonnes, 1.17 million tonnes and 680 940 tonnes respectively. 

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That was Wandile Sihlobo from the Agricultural Business Chamber, Agbiz. 

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