According to data from Statistics South Africa, agricultural gross value added rose by between 2.5% and 2.8% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted) in Q2. This comes after a strong 18.6% surge in the first quarter.

FNB agricultural economist Paul Makube attributed the Q2 performance to solid gains in horticulture and animal products. Citrus, apples, pears, maize, wine, nuts, avocados, wool and fruit juices all contributed to a 10% year-on-year increase in export revenues, which reached US$3.71 billion.

“Good harvests and favourable production conditions increased product availability for both the domestic and export markets,” Makube said, adding that despite the U.S. imposing a 30% tariff from August, agriculture remained the second-best performing sector of the economy.

Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo noted that Q2 growth was softer compared to the first quarter, largely due to delays in the summer grain harvest caused by prolonged rains. “We have ample summer grains and oilseeds, estimated at 19.55 million tonnes – up 26% year-on-year – but much of the momentum only came in early Q3,” he explained.

The livestock sector remained under pressure from foot-and-mouth disease, with quarantines and export bans disrupting supply chains and driving up meat prices. Avian influenza cases also added strain. 

Upbeat sentiment

However, the citrus harvest provided a timely boost as farmers moved quickly to benefit from a temporary tariff pause in the U.S.

Despite these challenges, sentiment in agribusiness remains upbeat. The Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index eased slightly to 63 in Q3, still well above the neutral 50-point mark.

Both economists agree that 2025 will be a recovery year for South African agriculture, albeit an uneven one. With La Niña conditions expected to improve seasonal rainfall in 2025/26, prospects for continued strong crop and horticulture output remain positive.

OFM Agri ebk/mvh