In its ninth production estimate released recently, the Crop Estimate Committee lifted South Africa’s 2024/25 production harvest by 1% from the September estimate to 20.08 million tonnes.

This figure comprises maize, sunflower seed, soybeans, groundnuts, sorghum, and dry beans. The upward revision was mainly for maize, while other production estimates remained unchanged.

This ample crop will likely continue to put downward pressure on prices – which bodes well for a moderating path of consumer food price inflation. The new 2025/26 production season is just starting and is shaping up to be excellent. Given the expected La Niña rains, optimism remains about a favourable season.

Data from the committee reveals that South Africa’s 2024/25 maize harvest is now at 16.32 million tonnes – 27% higher than the 2023/24 crop. These forecasts are well above South Africa’s annual maize needs of approximately 12.00 million tonnes.

“It means South Africa will remain a net exporter of summer grains and oilseeds, and from a consumer perspective, prices will remain lower for grain products. Farmers are eager to plant for the new season, and another good rain season is predicted,” says Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo.

Regarding oilseeds, the soybean harvest is estimated at 2.75 million tonnes – up 49% year on year. Sunflower seeds are up 12% from last season and are estimated at 708,300 tonnes.

Overall, South Africa has an ample supply of summer grains and oilseeds, and the focus is now shifting to the 2025/26 season, which also promises to be favourable. Against this promising outlook, South Africa’s food price inflation may continue to moderate into 2026 – though there is potential upside risk from the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease.

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