Agricultural Business Chamber of SA chief agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo says while above-normal rainfall in the week ending 25 April had caused concern, it is still too early to draw firm conclusions.

As the country nears the end of the 2025/26 summer grains and oilseeds season, rainfall during this period could pose risks, particularly for crops already being harvested. “If it does rain and it continues to rain, that, of course, raises concerns as to whether that will impact the quality of the crop,” he explained.

Harvesting had already begun in some regions, particularly for sunflower seeds and soybeans, making crops vulnerable to prolonged wet conditions.

Despite these concerns, South Africa was expecting a historic harvest. The total grains and oilseeds crop was estimated at 20.8 million tonnes, Sihlobo added. This would be the largest on record.

“The overall crop for the 2025 season is estimated at 20.8 million tonnes. This is up by 1% from last year.”

Maize dominated the harvest, accounting for 16.8 million tonnes, while soybeans were expected to reach a record 2.8 million tonnes. Sunflower seed production was also strong, rising 17% year on year. These gains were largely attributed to timely planting and strong yields across the country.

Lessons from last season

Sihlobo pointed to the previous season, when late rains also caused quality concerns. “Last year, we also saw heavy rains all the way through to the end of April. That did introduce some quality issues in the crop.”

However, these issues were not severe enough to significantly affect supply, and the country still achieved one of its largest harvests.

Looking ahead, the recent rains could prove beneficial. “The upside is that it improves soil moisture so that when the season starts in October, there is a little bit of soil moisture,” he said.

This is particularly important given concerns about a possible El Niño, which typically brings below-normal rainfall.

While risks remain, Sihlobo maintained a balanced outlook. “For now, it’s too early to worry. We can all just celebrate the fact that South Africa is looking to have an ample crop.”

OFM Agri/Elsabé Richard-May  sm

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