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The growing challenge in the agricultural sector in countries like Germany, Italy, France and the Netherlands, amongst others, is the shortage of farm workers due to border closures aimed at containing the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. This despite the fact that most  European and north American countries are generally regarded as food secure with a prominent place in the Global Food Security Index. Sihlobo says the pandemic will have immediate and significant implications since limiting the movement of many farm workers from Eastern Europe. This challenge, however, is not limited to Europe only, parts of the American agricultural sector also fear the shortage of labour, which is typically seasonal from Mexico. The US had already started raising concerns about farm worker shortages before the COVID-19 shock. The country now faces the risk of not being able to access around 10% of crop farm workers due to challenges in processing the so-called H-2A visa for temporary farm workers coming from neighbouring countries. The pandemic will likely exacerbate the situation. 

Sihlobo says this challenge raises a broader question of whether the current labour shortages might precipitate increased automation in the sector post-COVID-19 as a measure to curtail such challenges in the future. Admittedly automation would not necessarily be an easier step across all the agricultural sub-sectors, however, sectors such as horticulture will likely remain labour-intensive, but where possible, technological diffusion will likely accelerate.

He says there is no evidence of this effect as yet, but is an area that will be worth observing in the coming years. Such a transition would pose a challenge for policymakers in countries such as South Africa, which in its National Development Plan (NDP) expressed a desire to increase employment in agriculture and agro-processing sectors by roughly a million by 2030.

That was Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist, at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, Agbiz, only on Before Dawn.

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